GAMBLING, GAMBLERS AND RISK TAKERS : WHAT’S LUCK GOT TO DO WITH IT?

September 15, 2008 at 11:57 am · Filed under Online Gambling

During the last local earthquake, my house convulsed in the dark. I leaped from my bed to the hall doorway moments before a bookcase fell across the spot where I had been sleeping. Was my action one of gambling or taking a calculated risk? Was I lucky? When we buy stock, change jobs, buy more computer technology, get married or buy a lottery ticket are gamblers or simply calculated risk-takers? What's luck got to do with it?

Chaos and change bring disruption and opportunity to almost every area of our lives. Job security, gender roles and viable opportunities are in continual change. To keep our balance, survive and thrive we need to be clear and focused in our actions. Every choice we make, including the choice to do nothing, involves some kind of risk. A gamble has a high probability of loss. A calculated risk has a much higher probability of a positive outcome. Knowing the difference is essential to our success.

To make successful decisions and take positive action we must be in the realistic present. Emotional decision making can be lethal when governed by unexamined personal weaknesses and wounds from childhood. Finding and resolving old patterns of emotional highs and lows increases our ability to make a calculated risk. Even if old patterns are not resolved, acknowledging them and setting them aside during decision making can create better chances for being a winner.

Here is a comparison check list of traits and tendencies for gamblers and calculated risk takers.
Gambler

* Looks for excitement and danger.
* Jumps in with the crowd momentum, not wanting to be left out or left behind.
* Blames others or luck for bad outcome.
* Lingers over losing choices and wins not taken.
* Is influenced by unacknowledged fantasies of what is possible.
* Will risk more than can afford to lose.
* Acts on impulsive decisions.
* Is unaware of unconscious motivations.
* Acts out of sense of superiority or magical thinking.
* Gets high and feels powerful on a win. Gets low and feels worthless and small on a loss.
* Lacks discipline and invests on wishful fantasy rather than recognizes reality.
* Hides losses and is secretive about taking chances.
* Procrastinates (building up excitement levels).
* Follows a favorite method no longer useful or relevant.
* When losing will take increasingly bigger risks to catch up.
* Looks for the one big win that will result in bliss.

Calculated Risk Taker

* Contains and manages emotions.
* Is aware of irrational factors swaying a crowd.
* Takes responsibility for results.
* Does not waste time with what might have been.
* Acknowledges personal fantasies and resolves them or disregards them.
* Risks a tiny fraction of equity on any individual choice (equity meaning time, money, relationship, self esteem, skill etc.).
* Concentrates on a realistic long-term strategy.
* Knows personal abilities and limitations.
* Is hardworking and open to new ideas.
* Stays emotionally even during wins and losses.
* Easily resists risks that do not fit within defined risk limitations.
* Is open about risk taking.
* Proceeds in a serious intellectual manner.
* Stays alert to present trends.
* Follows predetermined guidelines of safety.
* Analyzes situation, observes own reactions and makes realistic plans.

Being human, we will identify with some qualities on both lists. We will also lack some qualities on both lists. Our responses give us an indication of where we can congratulate ourselves and where we can apply effort.

Calculated risk takers use as much energy analyzing themselves as analyzing opportunity. In this way the realist is able to appraise the specifics of possible choices rather than be carried away by glamorous promises, inflated feelings, the desire to win a competition or seek revenge.

Actions taken on decisions made in the moment, like my leaping out of bed during the shake, may seem to be thoughtless impulsive acts. But what an action looks like is not a measure of its risk factor.

Two people spend $1000 on the same stock. One buys because it's a hot tip that will be exciting to watch go up. The other buys because he's a trend watcher and is placing a planned percentage of his equity in what looks like an uptrend breakaway.

The first bought based on his emotions and will sell based on his emotions.The second had a purchase plan and knows in advance at what point he will sell. The initial purchasing action of both looks the same. Their background decision making is very different and will determine who is the lucky one.

To be a reasonable risk taker we must address each tendency within us that propels us to gamble. Once we can create and follow our own reasonable guidelines we can take calculated risks. Then, like me under the doorjamb during the earthquake, we position ourselves for the best outcome possible and help make our own good luck.

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Blackmail theory on missing gambler

September 15, 2008 at 11:55 am · Filed under Online Gambling

A TAXI driver who disappeared eight years ago had huge losses at Star City Casino and might have been trying to blackmail the then Australian general manager of the Bank of China, Glebe Coroner's Court heard yesterday.

Qing Yue Chen, then aged 40, parked his car at the casino on October 24, 2000, and 15 minutes later called a friend on his mobile phone from Chinatown. The friend could not get sensible answers from him, there were muffled voices in the background and Mr Chen has not been seen since.

An inquest into his disappearance, before coroner Hugh Dillon, heard yesterday that Mr Chen might have met the Bank of China executive, Fugen Chen (no relation), after Qing Chen told him he had information about an affair Fugen Chen had had with his secretary, Lin (Lucy) Lan.

A former detective initially in charge of the case, Craig Mills, said information had been received through Crime Stoppers that in discussions between Qing Chen and Fugen Chen, figures of $10,000 or $20,000 had been mentioned.

The informant told Crime Stoppers that Fugen Chen agreed to a private meeting with Qing Chen, despite the fact he had never met Qing Chen before. The one connection was that Qing Chen was a one-time boyfriend of Ms Lan.

Mr Mills said he was surprised that a high-ranking executive such as Fugen Chen would have agreed to a meeting. When questioned about it, Fugen Chen said the taxi driver had wanted to talk about patching up relations with Ms Lan, and that there was no extortion or blackmail.

A second caller to Crime Stoppers said another person, Augustine Chan, might have had something to do with the disappearance. The informant said Mr Chan had serious criminal connections and had the reputation of being able to "fix things", such as make people go "missing".

Mr Mills said Mr Chan was well-known to the East Asia Crime Squad and had been implicated in people smuggling and money laundering. The Bank of China had funded several of his restaurants.

Mr Dillon heard that Qing Chen had been a gambling addict and although he earned only about $70,000 to $80,000 a year driving, had put more than $1 million through the casino between 1986 and 2000, losing $366,722. There was no evidence he had obtained money from illicit sources.

Mr Mills said Ms Lan had told police that in 1999 Qing Chen had said he owed between $200,000 and $300,000 over his gambling debts and had received messages to pay up. He had borrowed $20,000 from Ms Lan and similar amounts from others.

Mr Mills thought that Qing Chen may have fallen victim to loan sharks hovering around the high rollers' room, which he had frequented as a gold member.

"My considered view is that given the fact that he was gambling well above his means, he might have taken the opportunity to extort some money from the Bank of China," he said.

After Qing Chen vanished, Ms Lan was transferred to the Haymarket branch and then to Melbourne. Detective Senior Constable David Willey said Fugen Chen had left Australia in 2006 and was in China. Mr Chan had left on August 27 last year and had not returned. Ms Lan's husband, Ji Yun Tang, a suspected people smuggler, was subject of an arrest warrant and had probably skipped the country.

The inquest resumes today.

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